Neal Mann
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The data is finally in. Newspapers aren't going to get enough digital subscribers
Friday's audit numbers are the strongest signal yet that paywalls will not make up for lost print revenues, argues Mumbrella's Tim Burrowes.
Exert
Friday’s audit numbers are the strongest signal yet that paywalls will not make up for lost print revenues, argues Mumbrella’s Tim Burrowes.
We’ve been talking about it for five years, but there is now finally enough data on paywalls to call it. Digital subscriptions will not save the newspaper business model.
While this has been the view of the pessimists for some time, it feels that only now is enough evidence dribbling out to reveal what those inside the publishers must have been seeing for the last few months. Most likely, they are never going to get there; at best it’s going to be a long, hard road.
Back in 2009, PHD boss Mark Holden (now the media agency’s global strategy director) reframed the question at Mumbrella Question Time.
“If the question is will people pay for online content, the answer is yeah – of course.
The most important question is how many people will pay for online content?”
We’ve been talking about it for five years, but there is now finally enough data on paywalls to call it. Digital subscriptions will not save the newspaper business model.
While this has been the view of the pessimists for some time, it feels that only now is enough evidence dribbling out to reveal what those inside the publishers must have been seeing for the last few months. Most likely, they are never going to get there; at best it’s going to be a long, hard road.
Back in 2009, PHD boss Mark Holden (now the media agency’s global strategy director) reframed the question at Mumbrella Question Time.
“If the question is will people pay for online content, the answer is yeah – of course.
The most important question is how many people will pay for online content?”
Despite a lack of transparency from the major newspaper publishers,
that question is now starting to be answered within the scraps of
information they are sharing.
And it now seems likely that while paywalls are going to bring in some dollars – they will be nowhere enough to make up the shortfall. And they will probably be the hardest earned media dollars out there.
The pattern is beginning to look like an initial surge of loyal subscribers when a paywall is first activated, but then growth quickly stalls. It suggests the market size is far smaller than publishers would have hoped.
The clearest part of the picture comes with News Corp’s The Australian, which was first to move to a paywall model, initially as a freemium (some content free, premium stuff for subscribers only) offer, then as a metered (a certain number of free articles per month) model.
As reported on Friday, it is starting to look like The Australian has hit a natural level of digital subscribers of less than 60,000.
Most relevant, of course, is that the rate of growth has slowed in each quarter – and at too low a level to be a game changer. The numbers feature both pure digital and digital plus print subscription bundles,...
And it now seems likely that while paywalls are going to bring in some dollars – they will be nowhere enough to make up the shortfall. And they will probably be the hardest earned media dollars out there.
The pattern is beginning to look like an initial surge of loyal subscribers when a paywall is first activated, but then growth quickly stalls. It suggests the market size is far smaller than publishers would have hoped.
The clearest part of the picture comes with News Corp’s The Australian, which was first to move to a paywall model, initially as a freemium (some content free, premium stuff for subscribers only) offer, then as a metered (a certain number of free articles per month) model.
As reported on Friday, it is starting to look like The Australian has hit a natural level of digital subscribers of less than 60,000.
Most relevant, of course, is that the rate of growth has slowed in each quarter – and at too low a level to be a game changer. The numbers feature both pure digital and digital plus print subscription bundles,...
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Source: http://mumbrella.com.au/data-finally-newspapers-arent-going-get-enough-digital-subscribers-206839
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